low-probability, high-impact outcomes
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There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…
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low-probability, high-impact outcomes
Preparing for High-Impact, Low-Probability Events: Lessons from Eyjafjallajokull (Chatham House Report) (Chatham House Report, January 2012) - Bernice Lee; Felix Preston; Gemma Green: 9781862032538 - AbeBooks
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